Update on Week 1 Football Betting Based on a Coin Flip

flip a coin

Well good morning my faithful flock.  No doubt that if you followed the coin’s strategy during week 1 of the NFL season,  you’re not very happy.  Here’s a quick breakdown of how we fared.

Picking teams to win outright, the coin won ALMOST 50% of the time, clocking in with a 7-8-1 record.  The one at the end there denotes the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game which ended in a tie.  Nobody won that game outright.  As far as betting against the spread….DOH!  Yup, a big ol’ DOH!  Unfortunately the coin failed us hard in that department going just 4-11-1.  The one at end is due to the Denver/Seattle game which ended in a push.  A push is when a game ends at the exact point spread.  In this instance, Denver won the game by 3 points, however Seattle was getting 3 points as the underdog, so there was no winner to that game.  Some bookies will still take your money saying that you didn’t win the bet, but for sake of this experiment, we’ll be calling it a tie and consider it no bet.

On to some random betting facts…the teams deemed favorites this week only went 9-6-1 as outright winners.  Washington was a pick em favorite, so for this exercise we’re calling them the favorite since they were in that field of the spreadsheet.

Home teams overall were 8-7-1 against the spread.

So, what did we learn this week?  Picking outright winners was relatively close with what SHOULD have played out, but we still had a losing record.  For arguments sake, we’ll say we owe our opponents $10.  For betting against the spread, we’re going to need some help over the next couple of weeks to dig us out of our 4-11-1 hole we dug ourselves into, owing our opponent $70.

That’s all we have for this week’s update folks.  We’ll have a new list of spreads and picks coming up tonight or tomorrow.  Until then, keep flipping the coin.  We’ll be back in the green in no time!



Spreads change throughout the course of the week, so you may hear other people saying that so and so didn’t beat the spread or that favorites won at a higher percentage than what’s written here.  We lock our spreads in at the time of writing our initial blog for the NFL week.  Lots of times the spread changes due to key people getting hurt in practice throughout the week.

Oh, and I wrote this way too early this morning, so if my math or my grammar is off, please know that caffeine has not been coursing through my veins yet.


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